Future Scenarios allow us to think beyond our usual constraints. We can indulge ourselves with a peek at the future through a kaleidoscope of different routes which over 20+ years could result in very different outcomes. There are many variables to consider; loosely grouped the Totnes Town scenarios we could find ourselves in 2030 could be:

*Business as usual: Peak Oil Gloom.
*Enlightened Transition: Resilient Communities.
*Hitting the Wall: Climate Change Catastrophe.
*The Impossible Dream: Techno-fix.

Exploring the scenarios at the workshops:

Business as usual; Peak Oil Gloom. ‘Progress’ continues unabated. High investment in roads and airports etc. Manufacturing crippled. Energy Rationing. Waste disposal very expensive - incineration widely considered an energy source. Frequent power cuts. Economic growth continues to be the national primary goal. Unemployment rises. Poverty and homelessness increases. Social unrest.

Enlightened Transition: Resilient Communities. Strong community response sustains an even economy. Investment from all sectors enables development of broad range of renewable energy supplies. Local suppliers overtake supermarket chains in sales. Massive decline in imports and exports. Cycle lanes replace car lanes. Electric buses and trains run on renewable energy. Smart homes with zero energy, emissions or wastes. Community gardens, allotments, orchards and woodlands are part of everyone’s life. 4 day working week. Higher employment levels. Happier, fitter and more skilled society.

Hitting the Wall; Climate Change Catastrophe. The full reality of climate change runaway brings its wrath of poverty, bankruptcy, homelessness and misery. Survivalists, religious fanaticism and increasingly fascistic political regimes become a familiar part of life. Heat waves, storms and droughts frequent. Fishing stocks collapse. Population declines. Waves of refugees from southern Europe arrive. Major extinctions in the natural world. Water rationing. Society under severe stress.

The Impossible Dream: Techno-fix. As yet unknown technology provides significant solutions to the energy crisis. Tradeable Energy Quotas (TEQs) a part of life. High investment in wind farms and smaller scale renewable energy systems. Deep underground carbon sequestration sumps drilled. New planning legislation over-rides visual amenity and conservation concerns. Large techno structures abound. Energy efficiency is high. Energy prices soar. Traffic congestion and road rage familiar scenes.

More reading:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dhr7fpp6_1dzs6pc6p
http://www.energyscenariosireland.com/
http://www.stockholm-network.org/Conferences-and-Programmes/Energy-and-E...
http://www.raisethehammer.org/index.asp?id=211